|Photo Credit: Michael @ NW Lens|
"High school graduates will face less competition for college admission in the next decade because of a decline in their ranks, according to a report on education enrollment trends released Thursday.
Estimates show that 3.21 million high school graduates are expected in 2013-14, according to a new report. At the same time, Latinos and Asian-Americans will comprise larger shares of high school populations, while numbers of white and black students will drop.
“Over the last two decades, colleges and universities have been able to count on an annually growing number of students graduating from the nation’s high schools. But it appears that period of abundance will soon be history,” said the study issued by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
Campuses will have to recruit more heavily, possibly reaching beyond typical geographic territories and turning to older adults and other nontraditional populations, the report said. The number of high school graduates increased nationally for a decade, peaking at 3.4 million in 2010-11, but then lower birth rates and less immigration contributed to a decline. Estimates show that 3.21 million graduates are expected in 2013-14, according to the report. Then it projects a leveling off until growth in the next decade brings the level to 3.4 million again by 2023-24.
The effect will be uneven. The Northeast and Midwest will experience the largest declines, with smaller ones in the West and some growth in the South, the study found. The study anticipates that 45 percent of the nation’s public high school students will be nonwhite by 2019-20, compared with 37 percent in 2009."